Stock Exchange Global economic uncertainty is causing pressure on the stock market. More than 30 trillion US dollars of capitalization have disappear from the stock market in the past year. Thus, global investors do not create value but instead lose value. IDX is one of the stock exchanges in the world that can maintain positive performance amidst the global economic turmoil. The achievements of the domestic market throughout 2022 can be a good provision to enter the new year. Global Stock Exchange
The stock market and rupiah did not move rhythmically in yesterday’s trade, Tuesday (3/1/2022). When the stock market skyrocketed, the rupiah even lost. Bad news from China and the United States will affect market movements in trading Wednesday (4/12/2022). These news and other factors will be discussed on page 3.
The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG). Was observ to have risen 0.55% to 6,888.75 today following. The yellow continent exchanges turning green after opening red this morning. Transactions are observed to be quiet at Rp. 8 trillion. Global Stock Exchange
Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG)
JCI was not alone because several stock exchanges in other Asian regions also closed higher. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed soaring 1.84% to 20,145.289 and China’s Shanghai Composite shot 0.88% to 3,116.51. Others Singapore’s Straits Times index closed down 0.17% to 3,245.8. Australia’s ASX 200 sank 1.31% to 6,946.2, and South Korea’s KOSPI weakened 0.31% to 2,218.6.
Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index hasn’t opened today because it’s still a holiday. So Nikkei’s first trade in 2023 will occur tomorrow. On the other hand, the rupiah exchange rate weakened again against the United States (US) dollar. Rupiah ended trading at Rp 15,595/US$, depreciating 0.16% on the spot market. Global Stock Exchange
US Dollar vs Rupiah
The threat of a 2023 recession still weighed heavily on equity market trading earlier this year. IMF forecasts regarding slowing global economic conditions have forced funds to shift to safer assets or safe havens. Besides that, trading is still quiet entering the new year, the holiday atmosphere is still felt. Market players are now also waiting for the release of the minutes of the. December edition of the US central bank’s (The Fed) monetary policy meeting to see future policy directions. So market participants tend to wait and see.
The Fed last month eased the pace of rate hikes to 50 basis points. After four straight hikes of 75 basis points each.
Analysts from Citi estimate that the most powerful central bank in the world will raise another 50 basis points next month. The main US stock market indexes weakened at the opening of 2023 trading, shedding early gains. Cause concerns such as rising interest rates and high inflation that brought down the market last year continue to trouble investors in the new year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.03% to 33,163.37, the S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 3,824.14 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.76% to 10,386.99. Tesla and Apple shares slipped, weighing on the market and continuing their bearish trend from 2022, when the tech sector was hit hard as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to fight inflation.
Tesla fell 12.24%, hitting its lowest level since August 2020, due to disappointing fourth quarter shipments.
Apple fell 3.74% following reports it would cut production due to weak demand. That sentiment could continue in 2023 as the central bank is poised to continue raising interest rates in the coming months, stoking fears that the US economy could fall into recession.
“The recessionary environment in 2023 could further hamper the performance of technology stocks in the new year, as investors’ thirst will increase for value-oriented companies and companies with higher profit margins, more consistent cash flow, and strong dividend yields,” wrote Greg Bassuk, CEO AXS Investments in New York.
History shows the US stock market tends to rebound after years of decline. In fact, the S&P 500 has, on average, recovered by 15% in the year following after a year in which it lost more than 1%.
The major averages closed 2022 with their worst annual loss since 2008, snapping a three-year winning streak. The Dow ended the year down about 8.8%, and 10.3% from a 52-week high. The S&P 500 lost 19.4% for the year and sits more than 20% below its record high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq plunged 33.1% last year.
The JCI has the potential to move in a variety of ways today influenced by the opening PPKM sentiment and recession. JCI’s closest resistance is at the level of 6,920, while the nearest support is at 6,800.
The JCI movement today will still be affected by the lifting of the PPKM restriction rule. This creates optimism for ‘s economic revival amidst the threat of a global recession.
While sentiment is overseas, investors are keeping a close eye on a batch of data releases in the first trading week of the year that will provide further information on the state of the economy. On Tuesday, the US purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing fell lower than expected, marking its fastest decline since May 2020. Later in the day, construction spending for November increased slightly, suggesting that the industry may be recovering.
Wednesday is the big day with the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey, better known as JOLTS.
Market participants are also waiting for the release of the minutes of the December edition of the US central bank’s (The Fed) monetary policy meeting to see the future policy direction. “We’ll see clues that could determine how big the interest rate hike in February,” said analysts from Citi, as reported by Reuters.
Market participants also look forward to Friday’s December jobs report, the final employment report that the Fed will have to consider before its next meeting on February 1. There are also several Fed president speeches scheduled for Thursday and Friday.
The Fed last month eased the pace of rate hikes to 50 basis points, after four straight hikes of 75 basis points each.
Analysts from Citi estimate that the most powerful central bank in the world will raise another 50 basis points next month. From China, the Caixin version of manufacturing activity data based on the purchasing manager’s index (PMI) for December 2022 was released today. The result contracted again, namely to 49, from the previous in November 2022 at 49.4.
However, this figure is better than previous market predictions which predict China’s manufacturing PMI will contract to 48.8. Earlier on Friday last week, the NBS version of China’s manufacturing PMI fell to 47, from 48 in November. Economists in a Reuters poll had expected the PMI to come in at 48.
With this, China’s manufacturing sector is still contracting. PMI uses 50 as a threshold. Under it is contraction, while above it is expansion. “In December, due to the impact of the epidemic and other factors… China’s general economic prosperity declined,” NBS senior statistician Zhao Qinghe said in a statement. Global Stock Exchange